By Philippe Lefevre
In 2015, against a backdrop of fish and chips and a traditional British Pub, David Cameron toasted to a new “Golden Era” in UK-China relations. This was to be a harbinger of close economic and social ties as the British government prepared to wheel in European reform and present themselves to the world as a sleek economy accompanied by partners everywhere. Of course, knowing as we do now, this was never going to be as easy as it seems, and whilst the rhetoric of a ‘Global Britain’ has remained strong, UK-China relations have not, and neither has the “Golden Era” mentality of British diplomatic relations. However, British diplomacy must continue to look to new countries and form closer relationships to partners if they are to have any chance of fulfilling the Global Britain ethos or to make any headway in the increasingly fractured international system. The question now becomes, where will the Foreign and Commonwealth, and soon to be Development, office look to?
It is easy to start with the obvious United States as a favourite for a renewed diplomatic era. Boris Johnson has much in common with Donald Trump and, even should the latter be removed, the current government has gambled a lot on a US-UK trade deal to counter the blow of Brexit. Tensions still exist between the two however, from Huawei, to chlorinated chicken, to the killing of Harry Dunn and the NHS, a myriad of smaller and larger issues keeps both sides of the Atlantic restrained in expressing their warm admiration of each other. It does not help that many of the UK’s greatest assets, it’s diplomatic network, development aid, and security focus, are at best complimentary to the US, and at worse a challenge. Doubtless the US and UK will remain steadfast allies in the coming years, but being outside of the EU, and no longer the unsinkable carrier in Europe that the UK once was, could tarnish the “Special Relationship” before it’s even had time to redevelop.
So perhaps let us move to South Africa, Kenya, or Nigeria. Three powerhouses in the vast continent of Africa that past and present Prime Ministers have touted as important and close allies. Boris Johnson has already hosted one of the largest summits with African leaders in London as a testament to his desire to work closer with them. However, if this really is to be the next area to feature heavily in our new Golden Era, then certain obstacles need to be addressed first. British relations with many African countries have been borne of economic necessity to capitalise on their economic booms, and with far less value-driven and properly understood context to the future of UK-African relations. Furthermore, the move to downgrade the British International Development office to be another branch of the FCO takes one of the UK’s biggest and best tools of foreign relations away. Without a renewed approach to African development and diplomacy, a new Golden Era on this vast continent will be impeded.
A further and more obvious move would be to build closer ties with our already steadfast commonwealth allies such as Canada, Australia, Pakistan, or India. India, Canada, and Australia have already featured heavily in new initiatives with the UK, from working against the negative presence of China, to new ideas on migration and trade. India has the biggest chance to become a new “Golden” ally, noting its incredible economic change, recently surpassing the UK in Nominal GDP, and huge potential. Indeed, Dominic Raab recently spoke at India Global week on the incredibly close relations between the two countries during the crisis and through multinational organisations. However, actual trade relations are rather poor between the two countries compared to other commonwealth allies like Australia, New Zealand, or Canada. Both still compete with big sectors such as defence and keep vastly different counsel in their respective regions. Furthermore, there still exists the controversial matter of British actions during the British Raj, which will continue to hamper relations until steps are taken to soothe them.
Lastly, of those other countries currently seeking a stronger audience on the world stage, who would be most amenable to closer ties with the UK? Japan, a country which William Hague once touted as Britain’s closest partner in Asia, has the potential to become a closer ally, sharing an island history and a new role in the International system. Yet their contextual differences could become too much to overcome with simple diplomatic symbolism. Japan’s desire to become more noticeable on the world stage still relies far more heavily with the United States and has little to gain from a closer relationship with the UK. Furthermore, as we’ve seen with current trade negotiations, Japan has few qualms twisting better deals from the UK if it feels it can get them. The UK similarly has not much to gain from closer relations with a country it already considers an ally, and so little is likely to change soon.
There is of course the need to evaluate the many other different countries in the world which the UK might seek to tie stronger relationships with soon. What I wished to do here was to simply lay out some of the debates that must be going on in the minds of senior diplomats concerning how the British diplomatic strategy could work post-Brexit and in favour of a Global Britain. Potentially the ‘Golden Era’ of relations could slip to some unlikely partners, perhaps even inside of the European Union. All that is certain is that when targeting the entire world with renewed diplomatic vigour, one country must stand out from the rest, and let us hope that the clinking of pint glasses celebrating this won’t be as bittersweet as past pints have sometimes been.
