Will Scotland leave the UK?
It’s the question I was asking myself almost 7 years ago when I cast my vote in the Scottish independence referendum at age 16.
It’s the question I thought I knew the answer to in the early hours of Friday 19 September 2014.
But the truth is, it’s an impossible question to answer.
In the years leading up to the referendum, independence dominated Scotland’s televised media, radio stations and newspapers to make it the most extensively covered political event in Scottish history. Millions of people were having conversations in classrooms, offices, supermarkets and pubs about what Scotland’s future should be and who we are as a nation. Over that 2 year long debate I had my fair share of shouting matches over the dining room table with my dad on the pros and cons of whether to remain part of the United Kingdom or become independent.
The referendum had record high voter engagement, with the largest turnout for an election in the UK since before the introduction of universal suffrage.
Seven years on, independence continues to define Scotland’s electoral politics and mass media reporting. Public opinion polling from January 2021 has suggested that up to 60% of Scots would consider voting in favour of independence in the event of a second referendum and this has become the fuel to many sensationalist tabloid articles and widespread media speculation.
But are we close to seeing Scotland become independent?
Nicola Sturgeon’s approval rating has certainly gained momentum since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. But with investigations into her role in the Alex Salmond court case ongoing, and increasing traction for opposition leaders, can her popularity hold?
Brexit brings a different dynamic to the independence question. Scotland now faces life outside of the EU despite having voted 62% to remain. According to Professor John Curtice and Ian Montagu, this has contributed to a rise in support for independence. That said, in the years following the referendum on Brexit, support for the SNP and independence dipped to its lowest level in years. As the split from Europe now becomes embedded, it remains uncertain how this might affect a future ballot on independence.
Then consider the polls, which have become the cornerstone for setting the narrative on Scotland’s future.
At the time of writing this, polling would suggest that more people in Scotland want to leave the UK than remain. But dig deeper, and the picture becomes murkier. The polls also suggest that most Scottish people believe independence distracts from other issues and that the Scottish government should focus on the pandemic, education, and the health service ahead of independence.
People live in the here and now, and this is reflected in public opinion polls. When asked to consider what currency an independent Scotland would use, and the arrangement at the Scotland-England border, polling from Survation has suggested that most people in Scotland would still reject independence by a similar margin to the previous referendum. In the lead-up to the 2014 referendum, the polls were also inaccurate by a factor of more than 3%. This margin of error makes it all-the-more difficult to predict ballot outcomes on this question, especially if public opinion remains as divided as it currently stands.
It’s worth remembering that Scotland is the most politically volatile country in the UK. Since the referendum in 2014, 90% of Westminster constituencies in Scotland have changed to a different political party, and the vote share for Scotland's largest parties has bounced by over 20% between different elections.
And let’s not forget about the impact of underlying factors such as religion, social class and national identity, or the economic and social aftermath of the pandemic.
Ultimately, Scotland’s future relationship to the rest of the UK will come down to the individual choices made by the people of this country. For some, Brexit will be the be-all and end-all in deciding what their attitude is towards the constitution. For others, it might come down to the economy, or to party leaders, or to which campaign has the better logo.
Nobody knows how attitudes in Scotland might change if we return our focus to another 2 year long independence debate. But maybe we should ask ourselves why speculators in the media are so determined to make a ruling now on what the Scottish public thinks when no vote has been cast on the issue since 2014.
